Are we in a recession? Not according to the administration, though plenty of others will beg to differ. Even if you call it a mere downturn, the fact is that people and businesses are suffering, marine trade included. The only question is how long the bad times will continue.

This was the keynote of the Marine Design Resource Alliance (MDRA) conference in Georgia last week, where economists and technology consultant had conflicting views on what lies in store for the marine industry.

IBI magazine reported that reps from U.S. boatbuilders and other sectors of the marine trade listened, with varying degrees of skepticism, to economist Barry Asmus's predictions that high oil prices would be good for the country in the long run, because they would break our economy’s dependence on oil, and that low corporate taxes and globalization were the key to a rebound. He predicted "the storm will pass" in six months.

Another economist, Anita Khan, took a gloomier view. IBI quoted her as saying she didn’t expect boat sales to return to "normal levels" until 2010, after a recovery period in which consumer spending would be "very subdued." She added that recovery could take longer in Florida and California because of the huge hits the housing markets are taking in those states.

It was Dan Burrus, an author and technology consultant, who had the most interesting things to say.

The big increase in the numbers of retiring baby boomers should, he said, encourage boatbuilders to design boats specifically for seniors to take advantage of this market. People over 55 "have about 80 per cent of the wealth of the nation" and "could live 20 years longer than the previous generation." The industry should come up with new designs ideas to keep people “addicted” to boating, he said.